Home appreciation expectations from the smartest minds in the nation are predicting an upward trend. There has been much speculation when the next housing cycle will hit. Some investors have been parking their funds on the side, hoping to pick up houses for pennies on the dollar in the next “crash.” Others point to an upcoming contentious election and put out their warnings. Those in the trenches report how things are going, but the problem with being in the trenches is you tend to loose perspective.
Luxury tends to amplify the trends of the average. It is affected by global pressures, stock market activity and other outside forces. But at the end, luxury real estate is a safe place to put money long term. It is a real asset, and much like gold or silver, is based on the tangible. What makes housing unique is it also usable, needed and very emotional.
Zillow and Pulsenomics, LLC commissioned a home appreciation expectations study of the housing outlook through 2023 from the smartest minds in the room. They then took the responses and averaged them together to give a pretty safe estimate of where things are headed. Here’s the home appreciation expectations:
2020 – 2.79%
2021 – 2.54%
2022 – 3.01%
2023 – 3.38%
For home appreciation expectations, normal, healthy and moderate growth is a great thing for the housing industry. We are still seeing the bulk of purchases coming through traditional, government backed loans. We are also on the leading (maybe bleeding) edge of two massive macro-trends. First, the Millennials are starting to come into the housing market as they get married and their families expand. Being in an urban environment, riding a bike everywhere and having a small carbon footprint is great in theory. Children have a way of making the most fervent toss “theory” out the window. Yes, their ideals will influence and shape the next generation of the suburbs. But suburbs they will still be. Remember, this is a HUGE group of humans in number. The second, is the inevitable transfer of the largest amount of generational wealth in the history of mankind. The Boomers are not getting younger and they have amassed Trillions in assets (primarily in housing equity). The X generation, is relatively small compared to the two groups it finds itself sandwiched between. So that transfer of wealth is going to be funneled down before it expands back out.
We are keeping an eye on all the trends (and outliers) in an effort to keep our clients and friends ahead of the curve. We love talking about all the what-ifs and welcome the chat if you want to reach out. You can contact us here.
Home appreciation expectations from Zillow/Pulsenomics Data –
| Estimated Home Price Performance (Dec/Dec) | Cumulative | |||||||||||
| Panelist | Title | Affiliation | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 |
| Scott Anderson | Chief Economist | Bank Of The West | 3.90% | 2.90% | 2.70% | 2.80% | 3.00% | 3.90% | 6.91% | 9.80% | 12.87% | 16.26% |
| Daniel Bachman | Senior Manager, U.S. Economics | Deloitte Services, LP | 3.90% | 2.60% | 1.80% | 1.70% | 2.00% | 3.90% | 6.60% | 8.52% | 10.37% | 12.57% |
| Bob Baur | Chief Global Economist | Principal Global Investors | 5.00% | 4.00% | 3.00% | 0.00% | 1.00% | 5.00% | 9.20% | 12.48% | 12.48% | 13.60% |
| Nariman Behravesh | Chief Economist | IHS Global Insight | 5.20% | 3.00% | 2.90% | 3.00% | 3.00% | 5.20% | 8.36% | 11.50% | 14.84% | 18.29% |
| Eli Beracha | Assistant Professor | Florida International University | 4.00% | 2.50% | 2.00% | 2.00% | 2.00% | 4.00% | 6.60% | 8.73% | 10.91% | 13.12% |
| David Berson | Chief Economist | Nationwide Insurance | 6.50% | 5.40% | 4.00% | 3.00% | 2.00% | 6.50% | 12.25% | 16.74% | 20.24% | 22.65% |
| Vijay Bhasin | Chief Risk Officer | Essent U.S. Holdings | 4.00% | 3.50% | 3.50% | 3.00% | 3.00% | 4.00% | 7.64% | 11.41% | 14.75% | 18.19% |
| Daren Blomquist | VP of Market Economics | Auction.com | 3.50% | -3.00% | -1.00% | 3.00% | 5.00% | 3.50% | 0.39% | -0.61% | 2.37% | 7.49% |
| Kathy Bostjancic / Gregory Daco | Head of U.S. Macro Investors Service / Chief U.S. Economist | Oxford Economics | 5.20% | 4.10% | 2.50% | 3.20% | 3.20% | 5.20% | 9.51% | 12.25% | 15.84% | 19.55% |
| Mark Boud | Chief Economist | MetroStudy | 3.10% | 1.60% | 0.70% | -0.70% | -2.40% | 3.10% | 4.75% | 5.48% | 4.74% | 2.23% |
| Beata Caranci | Chief Economist | TD Bank Group | 4.00% | 3.50% | 3.50% | 3.50% | 3.50% | 4.00% | 7.64% | 11.41% | 15.31% | 19.34% |
| Michael Carliner | Housing Economist | Independent Consultant | 4.50% | 3.25% | 3.25% | 3.25% | 3.25% | 4.50% | 7.90% | 11.40% | 15.02% | 18.76% |
| Paul Carrillo | Professor of Economics | George Washington University | 6.00% | 6.00% | 6.00% | 5.00% | 5.00% | 6.00% | 12.36% | 19.10% | 25.06% | 31.31% |
| Sherwood Clements | Instructor of Real Estate | Culverhouse College of Commerce | 4.50% | 4.00% | 4.00% | 2.50% | 2.00% | 4.50% | 8.68% | 13.03% | 15.85% | 18.17% |
| Mike Cosgrove | Principal | The Econoclast | 4.30% | 2.70% | 2.30% | 2.80% | 3.00% | 4.30% | 7.12% | 9.58% | 12.65% | 16.03% |
| Amy Crews Cutts | Economist | Independent Economist | 7.40% | 4.20% | 4.80% | 4.90% | 5.00% | 7.40% | 11.91% | 17.28% | 23.03% | 29.18% |
| Ralph DeFranco | Global Chief Economist | Arch Capital Services Inc. | 4.50% | 3.00% | 2.00% | 5.00% | 5.00% | 4.50% | 7.63% | 9.79% | 15.28% | 21.04% |
| Rajeev Dhawan | Director, Economic Forecasting Center | Georgia State University | 2.90% | -1.80% | 3.10% | 3.80% | 6.20% | 2.90% | 1.05% | 4.18% | 8.14% | 14.84% |
| John Dolan | President | Second Order Strategies, Inc. | -1.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 1.00% | 2.50% | -1.00% | -1.00% | -1.00% | -0.01% | 2.49% |
| David Downs | Real Estate Finance Professor | Virginia Commonwealth University | 3.50% | 3.00% | 2.50% | 2.75% | 3.00% | 3.50% | 6.61% | 9.27% | 12.28% | 15.64% |
| Michael Englund | Chief Economist | Action Economics LLC | 5.20% | 4.80% | 4.50% | 4.40% | 4.40% | 5.20% | 10.25% | 15.21% | 20.28% | 25.57% |
| Mira Farka | Professor of Economics, Co-Director, Ctr for Econ. Analysis and Forecasting | California State University, Fullerton | 5.20% | 2.70% | 2.00% | 2.00% | 1.80% | 5.20% | 8.04% | 10.20% | 12.41% | 14.43% |
| Christy Fields | Director, Real Estate Consulting | Pension Consulting Alliance, Inc. | 4.50% | 4.50% | 4.00% | 4.00% | 3.00% | 4.50% | 9.20% | 13.57% | 18.11% | 21.66% |
| Matthew Fienup | Economist, Economic Forecasting and Research Center | California Lutheran Univ. Ctr for Economic Forecasting & Research | 4.80% | 3.40% | 2.90% | 3.50% | 4.20% | 4.80% | 8.36% | 11.51% | 15.41% | 20.26% |
| James Gaines | Chief Economist | Texas A&M University Real Estate Center | 6.00% | 5.50% | 4.00% | 5.00% | 5.00% | 6.00% | 11.83% | 16.30% | 22.12% | 28.22% |
| Matthew Gardner | Chief Economist | Windermere Real Estate Company | 3.60% | 3.50% | 2.60% | 3.00% | 3.80% | 3.60% | 7.23% | 10.01% | 13.31% | 17.62% |
| Carlos Garriga | Senior Economist | Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis | 6.25% | 5.45% | 4.85% | 4.00% | 3.75% | 6.25% | 12.04% | 17.47% | 22.17% | 26.76% |
| Timothy Ghriskey | Chief Investment Strategist | Inverness Counsel LLC | 7.00% | 5.00% | 3.00% | 3.00% | 5.00% | 7.00% | 12.35% | 15.72% | 19.19% | 25.15% |
| Barry Habib | CEO | MBS Highway | 5.10% | 4.20% | 1.50% | 1.50% | 4.50% | 5.10% | 9.51% | 11.16% | 12.82% | 17.90% |
| Marc Halle | Chief Investment Officer | Park Lane Investors | 5.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 4.00% | 4.50% | 5.50% | 7.61% | 10.30% | 14.71% | 19.87% |
| Mark Hanson | Founder | Hanson Advisors | 2.00% | -7.00% | -3.00% | -1.00% | 2.00% | 2.00% | -5.14% | -7.99% | -8.91% | -7.08% |
| Joshua Harris | Managing Partner | Lakemont Group | 3.50% | 2.00% | 3.00% | 3.00% | 3.00% | 3.50% | 5.57% | 8.74% | 12.00% | 15.36% |
| Donald Haurin | Professor of Economics, Finance, and Public Policy | Ohio State University | 4.50% | 3.80% | 3.20% | 3.00% | 3.00% | 4.50% | 8.47% | 11.94% | 15.30% | 18.76% |
| Selma Hepp | Chief Economist | Pacific Union | 3.00% | 2.00% | 2.00% | 3.00% | 3.00% | 3.00% | 5.06% | 7.16% | 10.38% | 13.69% |
| Andrea Heuson | Professor of Finance | University of Miami | 5.00% | 5.00% | 4.00% | 4.00% | 4.00% | 5.00% | 10.25% | 14.66% | 19.25% | 24.02% |
| Raymond Hodgdon | CEO | Enlightened Economics | 7.40% | 7.00% | 6.80% | 6.90% | 7.00% | 7.40% | 14.92% | 22.73% | 31.20% | 40.39% |
| Douglas Holtz-Eakin | President | American Action Forum | 7.00% | 6.50% | 5.50% | 6.00% | 6.50% | 7.00% | 13.96% | 20.22% | 27.44% | 35.72% |
| Timothy Hopper | Managing Director | Macro Fund Advisors | 5.20% | 3.60% | 2.90% | 1.90% | 3.60% | 5.20% | 8.99% | 12.15% | 14.28% | 18.39% |
| Stan Humphries / Svenja Gudell | Chief Analytics Officer / Chief Economist | Zillow | 6.10% | 4.50% | 3.50% | 2.90% | 3.20% | 6.10% | 10.87% | 14.76% | 18.08% | 21.86% |
| Brad Hunter | Housing Economist | Independent Housing Economist | 4.10% | 2.20% | 1.90% | 2.60% | 2.90% | 4.10% | 6.39% | 8.41% | 11.23% | 14.46% |
| Parul Jain | Chief Investment Strategist | MacroFin Analytics LLC | 3.00% | 2.75% | 2.50% | 2.00% | 1.50% | 3.00% | 5.83% | 8.48% | 10.65% | 12.31% |
| Nathaniel Karp | Chief U.S. Economist | BBVA Research | 6.50% | 5.80% | 5.20% | 4.80% | 4.50% | 6.50% | 12.68% | 18.54% | 24.23% | 29.82% |
| Jim Kleckley | Director, Bureau of Business Research | East Carolina University | 7.10% | 6.51% | 5.98% | 5.51% | 4.99% | 7.10% | 14.07% | 20.89% | 27.55% | 33.92% |
| Jack Kleinhenz | Chief Economist | Kleinhenz & Associates, Inc. | 5.75% | 4.15% | 3.50% | 3.50% | 3.50% | 5.75% | 10.14% | 13.99% | 17.98% | 22.11% |
| Sibel Korkmaz | Economist | AIG Global Economics | 5.20% | 4.60% | 4.40% | 3.80% | 4.00% | 5.20% | 10.04% | 14.88% | 19.25% | 24.02% |
| Gerd-Ulf Krueger | Founder and Principal Economist | Krueger Economics | 3.50% | 2.00% | -3.00% | 2.50% | 2.50% | 3.50% | 5.57% | 2.40% | 4.96% | 7.59% |
| Brendan Lowney | Principal, Macroeconomics and Housing | Forest Economic Advisors | 4.10% | 3.60% | 3.60% | 3.00% | 0.60% | 4.10% | 7.85% | 11.73% | 15.08% | 15.77% |
| Stephen Malpezzi | Professor, James A. Graaskamp Center for Real Estate | University of Wisconsin School of Business | -3.00% | -5.00% | 1.00% | 2.00% | 2.50% | -3.00% | -7.85% | -6.93% | -5.07% | -2.69% |
| James Meil | Principal, Industry Analysis | ACT Research | 4.10% | 3.00% | 3.30% | 3.00% | 3.00% | 4.10% | 7.22% | 10.76% | 14.08% | 17.51% |
| Lynn Michaelis | President | Strategic Economic Analysis | 5.00% | 3.50% | 3.00% | 3.00% | 3.00% | 5.00% | 8.68% | 11.94% | 15.29% | 18.75% |
| Norm Miller | Hahn Chair of Real Estate Finance | University of San Diego | 3.80% | 1.50% | 1.50% | 3.00% | 3.30% | 3.80% | 5.36% | 6.94% | 10.15% | 13.78% |
| Michael Moran | Chief Economist | Daiwa Capital Markets | 4.00% | 2.80% | 2.50% | 2.00% | 2.00% | 4.00% | 6.91% | 9.58% | 11.78% | 14.01% |
| Joel Naroff | President | Naroff Economic Advisors Inc | 6.70% | 4.00% | 1.80% | 3.40% | 4.60% | 6.70% | 10.97% | 12.97% | 16.81% | 22.18% |
| Jim O’Sullivan | Chief U.S. Economist | High Frequency Economics | 5.00% | 4.00% | 3.00% | 3.00% | 3.00% | 5.00% | 9.20% | 12.48% | 15.85% | 19.33% |
| Gary Painter | Director of Research, Lusk Center for Real Estate | University of Southern California | 3.00% | -3.00% | 0.00% | 5.00% | 7.00% | 3.00% | -0.09% | -0.09% | 4.91% | 12.25% |
| Michael Pento | President | Pento Portfolio Strategies LLC | -1.20% | 2.90% | 3.90% | 2.10% | 3.00% | -1.20% | 1.67% | 5.63% | 7.85% | 11.08% |
| Lindsey Piegza | Chief Economist | Stifel Financial Corp. | 2.50% | 1.30% | -2.00% | 3.50% | 4.00% | 2.50% | 3.83% | 1.76% | 5.32% | 9.53% |
| Edward Pinto | Resident Fellow | American Enterprise Institute | 7.00% | 6.30% | 4.80% | -3.00% | -2.00% | 7.00% | 13.74% | 19.20% | 15.62% | 13.31% |
| Matthew Pointon | Property Economist | Capital Economics Ltd | 3.00% | 0.00% | 2.00% | 2.00% | 2.00% | 3.00% | 3.00% | 5.06% | 7.16% | 9.30% |
| Igor Popov | Chief Economist | Apartment List | 0.80% | -2.10% | 2.40% | 3.80% | 3.90% | 0.80% | -1.32% | 1.05% | 4.89% | 8.98% |
| Douglas Poutasse | Head of Strategy and Research | Bentall Kennedy | 2.00% | 0.00% | 2.00% | 4.00% | 5.00% | 2.00% | 2.00% | 4.04% | 8.20% | 13.61% |
| Lynn Reaser | Chief Economist | Point Loma Nazarene University | 4.00% | 3.00% | 1.00% | 1.00% | 3.00% | 4.00% | 7.12% | 8.19% | 9.27% | 12.55% |
| Issi Romem | Chief Economist | Trulia | 4.00% | 1.00% | 1.00% | 4.00% | 6.00% | 4.00% | 5.04% | 6.09% | 10.33% | 16.95% |
| Kenneth Rosen | Chairman | Rosen Consulting Group | 3.00% | 1.00% | 1.00% | 2.50% | 2.80% | 3.00% | 4.03% | 5.07% | 7.70% | 10.71% |
| Chris Rupkey | Chief Financial Economist | MUFG Union Bank | 6.00% | 5.00% | 4.00% | 3.00% | 4.00% | 6.00% | 11.30% | 15.75% | 19.22% | 23.99% |
| John Ryding / Conrad DeQuadros | Chief Economist / Senior Economist | RDQ Economics | 5.00% | 3.00% | 4.00% | 4.00% | 4.00% | 5.00% | 8.15% | 12.48% | 16.98% | 21.65% |
| Albert Saiz | Director | MIT Center for Real Estate | 3.50% | 1.00% | -3.00% | -1.00% | 0.00% | 3.50% | 4.54% | 1.40% | 0.38% | 0.38% |
| KC Sanjay | Founder | KC Economics and Real Estate Advisors | 5.60% | 3.50% | 1.80% | 2.90% | 3.80% | 5.60% | 9.30% | 11.26% | 14.49% | 18.84% |
| Andrew Schaffler | Director, Listed Property Investing | Angelo Gordon | 2.50% | -3.00% | -5.00% | 2.50% | 3.50% | 2.50% | -0.58% | -5.55% | -3.18% | 0.20% |
| Edward Seiler | Vice President, Research and Economic Analysis | Dworbell, Inc. | 4.00% | 3.00% | 2.50% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 4.00% | 7.12% | 9.80% | 12.54% | 15.92% |
| Rick Sharga | Executive Vice President | Carrington Mortgage Holdings | 5.00% | 4.50% | 3.50% | 4.00% | 4.50% | 5.00% | 9.72% | 13.57% | 18.11% | 23.42% |
| Paul Shea | Strategic Economist | Miller Tabak + Co., LLC | 4.50% | 4.50% | 5.00% | 5.20% | 5.70% | 4.50% | 9.20% | 14.66% | 20.63% | 27.50% |
| John Silvia | CEO and Founder | Dynamic Economic Strategy | 7.20% | 6.10% | 2.80% | 3.20% | 4.10% | 7.20% | 13.74% | 16.92% | 20.67% | 25.61% |
| Stacy Sirmans | Director | FSU Center for Real Estate Education & Research | 6.50% | 6.00% | 5.50% | 5.50% | 5.50% | 6.50% | 12.89% | 19.10% | 25.65% | 32.56% |
| James Smith | Chief Economist | Parsec Financial Management | 5.60% | 4.90% | 3.20% | 3.70% | 4.40% | 5.60% | 10.77% | 14.32% | 18.55% | 23.77% |
| Sean Snaith | Director, Institute for Economic Competitiveness | University of Central Florida | 5.50% | 3.50% | 3.00% | 3.00% | 3.00% | 5.50% | 9.19% | 12.47% | 15.84% | 19.32% |
| Komal Sri-Kumar | President | Sri-Kumar Global Strategies, Inc. | 6.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 5.00% | 5.00% | 6.00% | 6.00% | 6.00% | 11.30% | 16.87% |
| Stephen Stanley | Chief Economist | Amherst Pierpont Securities | 5.00% | 4.00% | 4.00% | 3.00% | 2.50% | 5.00% | 9.20% | 13.57% | 16.98% | 19.90% |
| Susan Sterne | Chief Economist | Economic Analysis Associates, Inc. | 3.40% | 2.00% | 4.50% | 5.00% | 3.50% | 3.40% | 5.47% | 10.21% | 15.72% | 19.78% |
| Chris Stroud | Co-founder, Chief of Research | HouseCanary | 5.90% | 3.60% | 1.50% | 0.50% | -0.40% | 5.90% | 9.71% | 11.36% | 11.91% | 11.47% |
| Thomas Swift | Chief Economist | American Chemistry Council | 4.30% | 2.30% | 1.30% | 1.50% | 2.80% | 4.30% | 6.70% | 8.09% | 9.71% | 12.78% |
| Alexei Tchistyi | Director of Office of Real Estate Research | University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign | 4.00% | 3.00% | 2.00% | 1.00% | 1.00% | 4.00% | 7.12% | 9.26% | 10.36% | 11.46% |
| Michael Thomas | Managing Director | MET Cpaital Advisors | 4.00% | 2.00% | 2.00% | 2.80% | 3.30% | 4.00% | 6.08% | 8.20% | 11.23% | 14.90% |
| Anne Thompson | Economist | Independent | 3.50% | 2.80% | 2.20% | 1.60% | 1.00% | 3.50% | 6.40% | 8.74% | 10.48% | 11.58% |
| Grant Thrall | Founder & Principal | Business Geography Advisors | 7.90% | 6.50% | 6.00% | 5.00% | 4.00% | 7.90% | 14.91% | 21.81% | 27.90% | 33.01% |
| Kerry Vandell | Director, Center for Real Estate | University of California – Irvine | 4.50% | 2.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.50% | 4.50% | 7.11% | 9.25% | 11.99% | 15.91% |
| Nancy Vanden Houten | Senior Research Analyst | Stone & McCarthy Research Associates | 5.00% | 3.50% | 3.00% | 3.00% | 3.00% | 5.00% | 8.68% | 11.94% | 15.29% | 18.75% |
| Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh | Earle W. Kazis and Benjamin Schore Professor of Real Estate | Columbia University Graduate School of Business | 4.00% | -4.00% | 1.00% | 4.00% | 6.00% | 4.00% | -0.16% | 0.84% | 4.87% | 11.16% |
| Doug Vincent | Chief Real Estate Valuations Officer | PIMCO | 1.50% | -3.50% | -3.00% | 0.00% | 2.00% | 1.50% | -2.05% | -4.99% | -4.99% | -3.09% |
| Mark Vitner | Managing Director and Senior Economist | Wells Fargo | 6.60% | 6.20% | 6.00% | 5.80% | 5.80% | 6.60% | 13.21% | 20.00% | 26.96% | 34.33% |
| Bennie Waller | Professor of Finance & Real Estate | Longwood University | 2.00% | 1.50% | 0.00% | 3.00% | 4.00% | 2.00% | 3.53% | 3.53% | 6.64% | 10.90% |
| Brian Wesbury / Robert Stein | Chief Economist / Senior Economist | First Trust Advisors | 3.50% | 3.40% | 3.40% | 3.40% | 3.40% | 3.50% | 7.02% | 10.66% | 14.42% | 18.31% |
| Ingo Winzer | President | Local Market Monitor | 5.20% | 4.80% | 4.10% | 4.00% | 4.00% | 5.20% | 10.25% | 14.77% | 19.36% | 24.14% |
| Mark Zandi / Andres Carbacho-Burgos | Chief Economist / Senior Director | Moody’s Analytics | 1.80% | 1.70% | 2.00% | 2.60% | 3.90% | 1.80% | 3.53% | 5.60% | 8.35% | 12.57% |
| Averages | 4.32% | 2.79% | 2.54% | 3.01% | 3.38% | 4.32% | 7.23% | 9.96% | 13.27% | 17.10% | ||
